Draumur borgarstjóra – martröð borgarbúa

Höfuðborgarbúar hafa ríka ástæðu til þess að hafa áhyggjur. Rekstur borgarsjóðs er ekki sjálfbær – stendur ekki undir sér – skuldum er safnað enda eytt um efni fram. Meirihluti borgarstjórnar með borgarstjóra í broddi fylkingar, neitar að horfast í augu við raunveruleikann en býður íbúum upp á sjónleik;  ekkert amar að annað en að tekjur eru ekki nægilegar miklar.

Þetta er „tekjuvandi“ segir Dagur B. Eggertsson borgarstjóri.

„Tekjuvandi“ A-hluta borgarsjóðs liggur í eftirfarandi:

  • Árið 2014 voru útsvarstekjur liðlega átta þúsund milljónum króna hærri að raunvirði en 2010 (árið sem Dagur B. Eggertsson og Jón Gnarr tóku við lyklunum að sameiginlegri peningakistu borgarbúa).
  • Samkvæmt áætlun (svokallaðri útgönguspá meirihluta borgarstjórnar) verða tekjur A-hluta borgarsjóðs rúmlega 18 þúsund milljónum krónum hærri að raunvirði á þessu ári en 2010.
  • Tekjur A-hluta verða um 530 þúsund krónum hærri á hverja fjögurra manna fjölskyldu en 2010.

Þetta er það sem borgarstjóri kallar af hófsemi sinni „tekjuvanda“. Kannski er það þess vegna sem hann lætur sig dreyma um mikla aukningu tekna. Í fjárhagsáætlun fyrir næsta ár er draumurinn sá að tekjur A-hlutans verði liðlega 27 þúsund milljónum krónum hærri en 2010. Í sælulandi svefnóranna verður borgarsjóður þannig tekinn réttum megin við strikið.

Einfaldleiki tilverunnar

„Tekjur hafa hækkað hægar en gjöldin,“ sagði Dagur B. Eggertsson í viðtali við DV um miðjan október. Það er næstum aðdáunarvert hversu tilveran er einföld í huga vinstri manns. Opinber rekstur snýst um að auka tekjurnar, finna nýja skatt- og gjaldstofna, svo unnt sé að halda áfram að gera það sem er skemmtilegast; að eyða annarra manna peningum.

Í einfaldleika tilverunnar er lítil ástæða til að hafa áhyggjur af eftirfarandi staðreyndum:

  • Launakostnaður A-hluta samkvæmt áætlun (útgönguspá) verður 11,6 þúsund milljónum krónum hærri á þessu ári en 2010 á verðlagi 2015.
  • Frá 2010 til 2014 fjölgaði stöðugildum hjá A-hluta um 328. Fyrir utan lífeyrisskuldbindingar má reikna með að árlegur kostnaður vegna fleiri starfsmanna sé um 2,2 þúsund milljónir króna.
  • Að raunvirði verður rekstrarkostnaður borgarinnar í heild liðlega 30 þúsund milljónum hærri að raunvirði á þessu ári en árið sem Dagur B. Eggertsson og Jón Gnarr tóku við völdum í ráðhúsinu.
  • A-hluti borgarsjóðs kostar hverja fjögurra manna fjölskyldu 3,3 milljónir eða 929 þúsund krónum meira en 2010.

Efnahagur „aðhalds“ og „útsjónarsemi“

Í viðtali við Ríkisútvarpið í ágúst var borgarstjóri sannfærður um að rekstur borgarsjóðs sýndi „aðhald“ og „útsjónarsemi“ meirihlutans. Efnahagur borgarinnar ber þess lítil merki, svo ekki sé dýpra tekið í árinni:

  • Frá 2010 til loka þessa árs (gangi áætlun meirihlutans eftir) mun eigið fé borgarsjóðs hafa rýrnað um 20,4 þúsund milljónir á föstu verðlagi.
  • Eiginfjárhlutfallið lækkar úr 69% í 49%.
  • Skuldir A-hluta verða um 22,3 þúsund milljónum hærri lok þessa árs en 2010 á verðlagi 2015.
  • Skuldaaukning borgarsjóðs nemur 734 þúsund krónum á hverja fjögurra manna fjölskyldu.
  • Fjárhagsáætlun 2016 gerir ráð fyrir að skuldir aukist áfram og hækki um 4,4 þúsund milljónir frá upphafi til loka árs.

Það er kokhraustur borgarstjóri sem treystir sér til að halda því fram að „aðhald“ og „útsjónarsemi“ hafi einkennt stjórn borgarinnar á síðustu árum. Þvert á móti geta gagnrýnendur meirihluta borgarstjórnar rökstudd með ágætum hætti að þar hafi óráðsía og óstjórn fengið að grassera.

Ekki steinn yfir steini

Sex mánaða uppgjör A-hluta borgarinnar sýndi halla upp á liðlega þrjú þúsund milljónir króna. Í grein hér í Morgunblaðinu hélt ég því fram að líklega væri hallinn vanmetinn þar sem gjaldfærsla lífeyrisskuldbindinga verði hærri þegar árið er úti, en gengið var út frá. Ný áætlun, sem fylgdi með fjárhagsáætlun fyrir komandi ár, sýndir enn verri stöðu en mig gat grunað. Samkvæmt svokallaðri útgönguspá stefnir í að halli á A-hluta verði 13,4 þúsund milljónir króna á þessu ári. Í fjárhagsáætlun 2015 sem lögð var fram á síðasta ári var gengið út frá 434 milljóna tekjuafgangi. Vonandi er útgönguspáin fyrir þetta ár reist á betri grunni en fyrir 2014: Raunveruleikinn reyndist þá 19-sinnum verri en spáin.

Það stendur því varla steinn yfir steini í áætlunum meirihluta borgarstjórnar og því ættu borgarbúar að hafa áhyggjur. Borgarstjóri og félagar hans í borgarstjórn, lofa að skila 567 milljónum króna í tekjuafgang á komandi ári. Ef til vill er búið að leysa „tekjuvandann“ því tekjurnar eiga að hækka um tæpar níu þúsund milljónir. Það jafngildir nær 292 þúsund krónum á hverja fjögurra manna fjölskyldu.

Vonandi fækkar holunum í götum, borgin verði snyrtilegri og þjónustan við borgarbúa eflist fyrst búið er að vinna bug á þeim „skorti“ á tekjustofnum sem hefur plagað borgarstjóra. Borgarbúar geta að minnsta kosti látið sig dreyma skamma stund, þótt líklegt sé að draumurinn breytist í martröð.

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